Lorena Erera Al Desnudo

Hunches, cabals and forecasts

This coming Friday, Copenhagen will the headquarters of the election and appointment ceremony of the city that will play host the summer Olympics in 2016. There are four candidates: Chicago, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro and Tokyo, all applicants, after a process of selection and assessment of their ability and competence to take charge of an event of this scale. Although some analysts talk about favorite (our national media have high hopes for Madrid), the fact is that an election by secret ballot leaves open many doors for each of the candidates present. The International Olympic Committee (IOC), head of the Olympic celebrations and election of the venues where they are carried out every four years, often rule the courtesy and diplomacy (well, except when they go to float the bribery and corruption), so that the whole world (the 106 voters) always tries to be well with the world (the elect), creating more uncertainty to a vote that could mark a before and after for many countries. And that is why, in the absence of a few days to take that vote, the pools, betting and predictions about the end result especially flourish until the exciting moment in which IOC president read the name of the city chosen to host the Olympics.

The American political scientist Samuel Huntington came to argue that the designations could be anticipated Olympic based on his theory of 'Clash of civilizations'. All candidates hold a considerable diplomatic efforts and marketing to his city, even making use of their heads of state and government to gain the sympathy of the members of the IOC voters. However, Huntington believed that under conditions of equality (there is no clear majority choice) the cultural factor could tip the balance of a vote. For years now there has been talk of the existence of a "lobby" (lobby) Anglo, based on what the Anglophone countries support each other and its members within the IOC voters always put before the vote to a candidate of any other English-speaking. Also spoke on occasion of "lobbies" Latin, Arabic, Slavic, East (Far East Asia) and even regional lobbies. Of course, the IOC denied the existence of these "lobbies." But the appointment of Atlanta as Olympic host in 1996 (ahead of Athens , the favorite), that of Sidney in the year 2000 (before Beijing, who won all votes rounds except the last and final) and most recently London to 2012 seemed to confirm Huntington's theory on international mutual support provided by countries that are part of a linguistic-cultural same family. The designation of Athens for 2004 Olympics would become an outstanding debt, and that once was justified in an attempt to maintain a continental rotation system (in 1992 were Barcelona) and the of Pekin for 2008 whites respond to business interests to open the door to the largest market world.

Since the IOC has refused voices that have appeared pre-established criteria, including the continental rotation (which would be detrimental to Madrid, since the two previous Olympic Games, both summer and winter ( 2012, London ; 2014, Sochi, Russia ) will be held on the European continent). Nor is it clear that you take the option with better previous report, in this case Tokyo, a favorite of technical delegations, not to give head to have more popular support in this case Rio de Janeiro, not even no guarantee that the vote will win Chicago, since 4 years ago the U.S. city of New York was eliminated in the second screen. So, although the bookmakers opt for the two candidates American, a priori, it is difficult to predict what will be elected and everything is possible.

However, if you fulfill the logic that refers Huntington, would be made to the number of votes and voter profiles to make a prediction. Given that neither the IOC President Jacques Rogge and the members of the country that lend themselves to vote for candidate (1 for Spain, 2 from Japan, 2 U.S. and 2 in Brazil), in addition to the exclusion of vote a South Korean representative who is suspended for corruption, the total number of votes shall 97: European 45 votes (half in the hands of Germans, French, Swedish, Italian, Russian and Swiss) 15 African, 19 Asian, 4 ocean (3 Australian) and 14 American . This structure suggests, looking at the first ballot, as follows:

* The so-called "Anglo lobby" would vote for Chicago's bid, that would guarantee the 4 votes in Oceania, 2 from Canada and several European ( Great Britain and Ireland, in addition to the pro-Anglo Poland and Czech Republic), Asia (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel) and Africa (South Africa, Kenya, Gambia, Egypt, Zambia).

* This uniformity contrasts with the probable division of the hypothetical "Latino lobby" as Latin American countries would have to choose between Madrid and Rio de Janeiro. This would not be much to Madrid, since neither has secured the unanimous support of Europe. However, it is conceivable that tear the support of Italy, Greece, Switzerland, Portugal (another country half-hearted) plus, possibly, Germany, Austria and even Ukraine, as well as Monaco, Liechtestein and the Netherlands (by the monarchical ties). The French 3 votes unpredictable (not unlikely that opted for Chicago, as in Illynois there is enough population of French origin, but are also able to bet on Rio) and the Nordic countries can go on either side.

* Representatives from Asian countries and Russia (3) but chose to Tokyo.

So therefore, this theory "culturalist", Rio de Janeiro will be out after the first ballot. Consequently, their votes would be divided between Chicago and especially Madrid in the second ballot, which would eliminate the second screening Tokyo. And the final decision should be between American city and the English capital, with advantage to the first (would add much of the Asian votes Tokyo)

However, as there are no official lobbies or pressure groups or linguistic-cultural trends, should be guided by other criteria, but the IOC says are not decisive.

* Since 1952, no Summer Olympics repeated continent. So, the choice of Madrid was a surprise. Do not forget that in the past 25 years, there have been two or three European options for all the Olympics and, for this, just was Prague and went to an early exit. What have special reason to repeat in Europe?.

* Since 1968, the Olympics have visited the American continent every 8-12 years. In 2016, there will be 20 years since Atlanta. If you do not leave Rio neither elected nor Chicago would have to spend at least 24 years before the Olympics return to America, something that has only happened once in history and considering that during that period spent World War I, during which there was no Olympic activity.

* Brazil, home of the World Cup in 2014, is the only candidate countries that has never hosted the Olympics. Should I be granted an opportunity or would have to wait first to see how you handle hosting a sporting event?. Do not forget that Brazil has a powerful influence international the world of football and its multinational partnership, FIFA, the organization that has made many financial investments around the world.

* On the other hand, the American candidate has the handicap of having the rarefied relations USOC (U.S. Olympic Committee) with the IOC to take even 20% of total income received by the IOC sponsorship and have 12.5% \u200b\u200bof revenue from the sale of television rights to games of 2012 and 2014, asking the international body to take over of the losses they may have in the organization of the 2016 games. More than one, the topic will be generated urticaria.

* Of course, finally, to all economic interests at stake, the appearance on the scene of the heads of state pouring into his candidacy gives to think. And Spain would have to fall well in the world when its rivals are headed delegations Lula Da Silva, president 157 million Brazilians Yukio Hatoyama, the 127 million Japanese souls; Barack Obama , the 306 million Americans. To see who plays the quarter with Similar diplomatic letters. Can King Juan Carlos (popular, but the head of a state of just 45 million people) counteract such influence?

Major considerían bookmakers, a priori, that Madrid is the least options and would fall in the first round or second. If you fall into the first (flight of the European elections and concentration of the Latin American vote in Rio), its support is split between Rio and Chicago, so Tokyo would fall to the second, with a porterior "final" between American headquarters; If you happen to the second, would the elimination of Tokyo (whose votes would go to Rio and Chicago hypothetically) or Chicago (the American vote is concentrated in Rio and the pro-Anglo vote to Tokyo). But if Rio falls to first change, would have serious chance of making the final two.

least surprising thing would be to impose Chicago. However, these are all speculations. On Friday we will leave doubts.

Throat Cancer Colours

Looking for a formula

Some day

seriously invest in R & D rather than buying technology?

When studying philosophy in college that told us of: "if there is a way to explain the world, is through mathematics." Behind one is the two and Then the three, followed by four, five, six, ... and so on until we get tired because there are infinite numbers. For this reason, many times we explain our life following a succession of steps (number): this happens, then the other and then the following. 1,2,3. But nature is complex and, yes, mathematics as well. Conditions arise, cause-effect relationships are subject to change ( David Hume said that we could not say that that relationship did not exist in reality but that we established from our experience, own or others, past), procedures that are not based in logic, inheritance unnatural numbers, ect. And that is where we begin to lose. Complex numbers Damn!!

I guess you could consider hopeless. It is in this situation in which something does not come as expected and start to spin the head to know, without success, what went wrong. Where am I wrong? Were not they supposed to know this?. Not enough, apparently. And for not knowing you do not know just do not know, therefore want to live fast and try to solve the puzzle as soon as possible (the test-psycho test us in this regard). More blockage. It is not logical. More frustration. That is when we started looking for a formula, Formula , one that is miraculous to save you from anxiety, pretentious to take without delay and get right where he intended to find the balance that were beginning to lose. Ultimately, a mathematical formula that is so perfect that allows you to lower exposure to chance and you can place one step ahead of the rest, because, after all, be superior, as a condition sine-qua-non a possible manifestation of power is a more sweet as sweet and joyous to all who may have any human Ego.

A trick or trap can penetrate, you can copy and can be avoided. It is a temporary resource that can help at a time. Instead, find a suitable pattern and precise in any career, gives you an advantage, while others worry about neutralizing it, you can move forward in any other way. For that reason, we find as eager Gollum in "One Ring."

However, sometimes we obsess so much to see the tree we do not see the forest. Especially when we think we are in a "race." Sometimes we look over and over again the signs of the equation when perhaps the error lies in the definition (just as many problems practically give you the solution in its own statement). Most times, the real delight is in search to find the formula and find satisfaction involved, rather than on using it. After all, all the effort that gives you personally (do own anything) much more than simply applying what others have done. Perhaps that is why it is always better to have their own criteria (the impact is another topic) that no "clone" of others. It will always be yours (recognition is another topic), as the child born of a woman or the work that comes from a creator. Or even any idea that is itself.

Want find the solution? Well-defined formula and devote the time needed.

What Kind Of Bow Does Jessica Biel Use In Blade

The Lord of the vegetables

A friend of mine explained yesterday that his son four months already begun to shout, no doubt a confirmation that its stem is part of our glorious Iberian idiosyncrasies. Is it a cultural trait of talking loudly or raise his voice more than the other simply for pleasure guttural, even when you're discussing?. Maybe you're falling into a cliché and not for both. But every time I travel outside the Iberian Peninsula, the fact is it costs me very little to identify the passers countrymen. Why is than in southern European countries we love so much to be discreet and fit a little uproar every time I try to manifest anything?.

matters little that we want to know anything, we need to listen well. Do we want to run away from the tabloids?. Anyway, one way or another I get wind of life and misery of prostitutes who freely privacy. That the issue is not going with you? Suck it up well. What if I want to buy anything? No matter, I will flood the same way with publicity and propaganda until it bursts. Instead of asking for silence, the tendency is to further increase the tone of voice.

Now we have the great tragedy of the decomposition of Spain and the genesis of neopatriotismo Catalan: consulting Arenys de Munt !!!!!!. All of a sudden, one another, I placed a humble town of only 8,000 inhabitants at the epicenter of an earthquake DIMENSIONS media of Dante, could determine the future of humanity until the day that the Messiah returns. Because, let's see, if you look at it coldly (to remedy), if more than 5,000 of the 8,000 inhabitants in this village brought the issue to heave it, can you know why I tune into Perez now be much verbiage?.

Sounds good (even great) to mobilize 2,600 people to express their views in a year democratic participation (despite having no official or binding on a subject about which little can be done). But no longer a local act (sorry to be slightly optimistic but not very lucid thinking that the fate of the 7 million Catalans will decide the citizens of a few municipalities whose mayors have decided to "advance" his campaign of municipal two years).

The English Constitution establishes that one can not claim self-determination (on the other hand, a somewhat abstract concept that emerged in the United Nations Conference (1945) with the intention of breaking the colonial empires in the interests of U.S. and EU Soviet). And as the reform of the Constitution seems rather difficult, requiring a consensus today improbable in these parts, much of what is said to regard l contains, in my opinion, a lot of demagogy and burning desire attention. And it starts fishwives chat: about talking about "giant step in the political history of Catalonia", other than whether to send military tanks Arenys ... But what you want to tell you. Many people will be excited and mount your film, but to me all this seems like a staging Tunick: may be repeated in many places, invetirá money for the show People will always be venerated with excitement or criticize vehemently given for some covers, but change, which is said to change ... I do not think it will change much. The Basques do not lose their shyness but pose naked in the Kursaal, the same way that not much care for the environment body naturally by many to be displayed. Of course, we will show for a while. Although there will be a difference that Tunick's photos post them one day and the press tend to forget soon. On the other hand, certain subjects are to talk and talk and talk .... And, of course, to yell, scream and shout. JOOOOOOOOOODER!!