This coming Friday, Copenhagen will the headquarters of the election and appointment ceremony of the city that will play host the summer Olympics in 2016. There are four candidates: Chicago, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro and Tokyo, all applicants, after a process of selection and assessment of their ability and competence to take charge of an event of this scale. Although some analysts talk about favorite (our national media have high hopes for Madrid), the fact is that an election by secret ballot leaves open many doors for each of the candidates present. The International Olympic Committee (IOC), head of the Olympic celebrations and election of the venues where they are carried out every four years, often rule the courtesy and diplomacy (well, except when they go to float the bribery and corruption), so that the whole world (the 106 voters) always tries to be well with the world (the elect), creating more uncertainty to a vote that could mark a before and after for many countries. And that is why, in the absence of a few days to take that vote, the pools, betting and predictions about the end result especially flourish until the exciting moment in which IOC president read the name of the city chosen to host the Olympics.
The American political scientist Samuel Huntington came to argue that the designations could be anticipated Olympic based on his theory of 'Clash of civilizations'. All candidates hold a considerable diplomatic efforts and marketing to his city, even making use of their heads of state and government to gain the sympathy of the members of the IOC voters. However, Huntington believed that under conditions of equality (there is no clear majority choice) the cultural factor could tip the balance of a vote. For years now there has been talk of the existence of a "lobby" (lobby) 
Anglo, based on what the Anglophone countries support each other and its members within the IOC voters always put before the vote to a candidate of any other English-speaking. Also spoke on occasion of "lobbies" Latin, Arabic, Slavic, East (Far East Asia) and even regional lobbies. Of course, the IOC denied the existence of these "lobbies." But the appointment of Atlanta as Olympic host in 1996 (ahead of Athens , the favorite), that of Sidney in the year 2000 (before Beijing, who won all votes rounds except the last and final) and most recently London to 2012 seemed to confirm Huntington's theory on international mutual support provided by countries that are part of a linguistic-cultural same family. The designation of Athens for 2004 Olympics would become an outstanding debt, and that once was justified in an attempt to maintain a continental rotation system (in 1992 were Barcelona) and the of Pekin for 2008 whites respond to business interests to open the door to the largest market world.
Anglo, based on what the Anglophone countries support each other and its members within the IOC voters always put before the vote to a candidate of any other English-speaking. Also spoke on occasion of "lobbies" Latin, Arabic, Slavic, East (Far East Asia) and even regional lobbies. Of course, the IOC denied the existence of these "lobbies." But the appointment of Atlanta as Olympic host in 1996 (ahead of Athens , the favorite), that of Sidney in the year 2000 (before Beijing, who won all votes rounds except the last and final) and most recently London to 2012 seemed to confirm Huntington's theory on international mutual support provided by countries that are part of a linguistic-cultural same family. The designation of Athens for 2004 Olympics would become an outstanding debt, and that once was justified in an attempt to maintain a continental rotation system (in 1992 were Barcelona) and the of Pekin for 2008 whites respond to business interests to open the door to the largest market world. Since the IOC has refused voices that have appeared pre-established criteria, including the continental rotation (which would be detrimental to Madrid, since the two previous Olympic Games, both summer and winter ( 2012, London ; 
2014, Sochi, Russia ) will be held on the European continent). Nor is it clear that you take the option with better previous report, in this case Tokyo, a favorite of technical delegations, not to give head to have more popular support in this case Rio de Janeiro, not even no guarantee that the vote will win Chicago, since 4 years ago the U.S. city of New York was eliminated in the second screen. So, although the bookmakers opt for the two candidates American, a priori, it is difficult to predict what will be elected and everything is possible.
2014, Sochi, Russia ) will be held on the European continent). Nor is it clear that you take the option with better previous report, in this case Tokyo, a favorite of technical delegations, not to give head to have more popular support in this case Rio de Janeiro, not even no guarantee that the vote will win Chicago, since 4 years ago the U.S. city of New York was eliminated in the second screen. So, although the bookmakers opt for the two candidates American, a priori, it is difficult to predict what will be elected and everything is possible. However, if you fulfill the logic that refers Huntington, would be made to the number of votes and voter profiles to make a prediction. Given that neither the IOC President Jacques Rogge and the members of the country that lend themselves to vote for candidate (1 for Spain, 2 from Japan, 2 U.S. and 2 in Brazil), in addition to the exclusion of vote a South Korean representative who is suspended for corruption, the total number of votes shall 97: European 45 votes (half in the hands of Germans, French, Swedish, Italian, Russian and Swiss) 15 African, 19 Asian, 4 ocean (3 Australian) and 14 American . This structure suggests, looking at the first ballot, as follows:
* The so-called "Anglo lobby" would vote for Chicago's bid, that would guarantee the 4 votes in Oceania, 2 from Canada and several European ( Great Britain and Ireland, in addition to the pro-Anglo Poland and Czech Republic), Asia (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel) and Africa (South Africa, Kenya, Gambia, Egypt, Zambia).
* This uniformity contrasts with the probable division of the hypothetical "Latino lobby" as Latin American countries would have to choose between Madrid and Rio de Janeiro. This would not be much to Madrid, since neither has secured the unanimous support of Europe. However, it is conceivable that tear the support of Italy, Greece, Switzerland, Portugal (another country half-hearted) plus, possibly, Germany, Austria and even Ukraine, as well as Monaco, Liechtestein and the Netherlands (by the monarchical ties). The French 3 votes unpredictable (not unlikely that opted for Chicago, as in Illynois there is enough population of French origin, but are also able to bet on Rio) and the Nordic countries can go on either side.
* Representatives from Asian countries and Russia (3) but chose to Tokyo.
So therefore, this theory "culturalist", Rio de Janeiro will be out after the first ballot. Consequently, their votes would be divided between Chicago and especially Madrid in the second ballot, which would eliminate the second screening Tokyo. And the final decision should be between American city and the English capital, with advantage to the first (would add much of the Asian votes Tokyo)
However, as there are no official lobbies or pressure groups or linguistic-cultural trends, should be guided by other criteria, but the IOC says are not decisive.
* Since 1952, no Summer Olympics repeated continent. So, the choice of Madrid was a surprise. Do not forget that in the past 25 years, there have been two or three European options for all the Olympics and, for this, just was Prague and went to an early exit. What have special reason to repeat in Europe?.
* Since 1968, the Olympics have visited the American continent every 8-12 years. In 2016, there will be 20 years since Atlanta. If you do not leave Rio neither elected nor Chicago would have to spend at least 24 years before the Olympics return to America, something that has only happened once in history and considering that during that period spent World War I, during which there was no Olympic activity.
* Brazil, home of the World Cup in 2014, is the only candidate countries that has never hosted the Olympics. Should I be granted an opportunity or would have to wait first to see how you handle hosting a sporting event?. Do not forget that Brazil has a powerful influence international the world of football and its multinational partnership, FIFA, the organization that has made many financial investments around the world.
* On the other hand, the American candidate has the handicap of having the rarefied relations USOC (U.S. Olympic Committee) with the IOC to take even 20% of total income received by the IOC sponsorship and have 12.5% \u200b\u200bof revenue from the sale of television rights to games of 2012 and 2014, asking the international body to take over of the losses they may have in the organization of the 2016 games. More than one, the topic will be generated urticaria.
* Of course, finally, to all economic interests at stake, the appearance on the scene of the heads of state pouring into his candidacy gives to think. And Spain would have to fall well in the world when its rivals are headed delegations Lula Da Silva, president 157 million Brazilians Yukio Hatoyama, the 127 million Japanese souls; Barack Obama , the 306 million Americans. To see who plays the quarter with Similar diplomatic letters. Can King Juan Carlos (popular, but the head of a state of just 45 million people) counteract such influence?
Major considerÃan bookmakers, a priori, that Madrid is the least options and would fall in the first round or second. If you fall into the first (flight of the European elections and concentration of the Latin American vote in Rio), its support is split between Rio and Chicago, so Tokyo would fall to the second, with a porterior "final" between American headquarters; If you happen to the second, would the elimination of Tokyo (whose votes would go to Rio and Chicago hypothetically) or Chicago (the American vote is concentrated in Rio and the pro-Anglo vote to Tokyo). But if Rio falls to first change, would have serious chance of making the final two.
least surprising thing would be to impose Chicago. However, these are all speculations. On Friday we will leave doubts.
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