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hunches, predictions and results

Could not be. The Olympic designation has finally booked a ticket to the 2016 Rio de Janeiro not currently see a second Olympics in English territory. All cabals and speculations have come to an end: Chicago , despite the emergence of its president, did not pass the first ballot; Toky or, despite its impeccable project, he was halfway, and Madrid, despite their enormous enthusiasm and offered his intense "diplomatic-election, has definitely confirmed that Europe would not have two consecutive Olympics in the mainland. For the first time in history, South America (not Latin America, since Mexico and was based in 1968) will host the largest and most universal competitive sport in the world.

I must say that Madrid's bid expected to go so far. When 4 years ago, after a disappointing dispose of Singapore, some officials said the nomination would insist again for the immediate appointment, more than one could not help thinking it was a waste of time, as any European option would have very few chances of collect the Olympic flag in 2012. Still, Madrid's bid insisted, aware that at least, not compete against any major European capital (Paris, after its traumatic defeat of Singapore, promised to be very tough rival in these fights but I thought by 2020). And by golly, today has been planted at the very end, at which time no longer says the result of a vote but directly read the name of the winner. Something that failed or face the 1972 (Munich won an absolute majority in the second vote, as Montreal and Madrid went into the streets simultaneously ) or face to 2012. Although not used as a comfort, not bad for not being a favorite anything.

Anyway, I can say one thing: I think, beyond principles and moral codes, to choose which venue will host a series of sporting events through a competition (political, but competition), I find it quite consistent. The document will be referred to in many ways, including using various synonyms of mamoneo, rally, ect ... but follows the logic of sports, until it is finished, the result is not definitive, not always the best wins, and the winner is usually determined by several factors: skill, luck, environment ... and any trick or trap that is not discovered at the time.

The first of the three votes of the selection process tends to record what is the most attractive option, since all voters choose their "first choice." There is significant that despite the stigma (rotating continental tradition) of "European site", Madrid was the most voted (28), ahead of Rio (26), Tokyo (22) and the great disappointment, Chicago (18). I guess if Huntington had not died last year had found some explanation for the lapse of cultural theory, that Copenhagen has been recently confirmed. But the point is that the two cities "Latino" took a clean sweep half of the votes in the first round, so obviously they received support from voters who speak no English or Portuguese, has also become apparent that the betting favorite is useless: once the IOC members are enclosed in a hotel and start the politicking, the result becomes less predictable than expected. And so it has been the thing: the favorite in the betting houses, Chicago, with Obama in front, has been left out in the first screen.

The second vote marks the entry into action of the "second choices / preferences", an alternative choice is often not normally be improvised from voters. Most of them often unclear and inevitably "linked" to a particular option, but when you get it, you can always "offer" support when one is freed from his "first choice" failed. A kind of "marketing of second choices." The English delegation was particularly concerned about this vote, the insurance score can be noticed in the first election, and handle the "after" is not so easy, and the uncertainty about who will be eliminated, it can "lock" in advance and with certainty Feedback from second choices. Among vote and vote no time to "negotiate." It seems that Madrid's bid was played much of his chances with second choices in the early elimination of Rio, which allowed access to support Latin America (including Brazil) with a view to the final. So not only did not happen, but the Brazilian candidacy was virtually all the support he had received Chicago (46), too close to the absolute majority that would automatically proclaimed official home of 2016. Madrid, to keep er initial support (28 +1), could be imposed on Tokyo (20), which left her candidacy for a step to success. However, the numbers in hand and is unlikely to produce a significant shift of votes in such a short time, has really been the second vote has left the "fish" rather than sold. By now, few will change to vote and 17 votes are almost insurmountable difference with only 20 votes (+3) to distribute again. In 2005, London 2012 won by one vote when he was 5 below Paris, and was a "sorpresón." So, despite the final emotion and even though "to the tail, it's all bull," the fact is that Rio had already won the Olympics for 2016 before the third ballot. Only one was going to prevent catastrophe.

Therefore, the third ballot is where the disappointment has been built for the English candidacy, but has in fact been a mere formality. The landslide victory by 66 to 32 is not in doubt: after the previous vote, many expected and Rogge citase the name of the Brazilian carnevalera emblematic city. Almost the integrity of the vote went to Tokyo to Rio and Madrid could only earn 3 / 3 options. It was clear that the first choice of most dancing samba rhythm more than chotis. If not for the emotion of hearing a name for demonstration of joy, it might have been spared such agony lengthen.

Anyway. Within the next four years more.